A new study published in PNAS Nexus documents a dramatic transformation in space launch economics over six decades, with implications for broadband satellite constellations and the broader commercial space industry.

What Happened

Researchers from Politecnico University of Turin and the University of Cambridge analyzed 4,405 rocket launches spanning 1960 to 2025 across more than 330 different configurations developed by the United States, Russia, China, India, Europe, Japan, Australia, Brazil, Israel, Iran, South Korea, and Ukraine. In 2024 U.S. dollars, the average cost of sending 1 kilogram (2.2 pounds) to orbit dropped from $87,023 in 1960 to $3,868 in 2025—a decrease of 96%. The study found that each time cumulative payload doubled industry-wide, launch costs fell by 21.2%, a learning rate the researchers said exceeds solar panels, long considered the benchmark for cost reduction. Two major factors drove this decline: the end of the Cold War and the shift to commercial space purposes, followed by an acceleration after SpaceX's Falcon 9 debut and the advent of reusability at scale.

Why It Matters

Lower launch costs directly affect projects like Starlink, which requires massive constellations of satellites to provide global broadband coverage. If the historical trend continues as projected—to $1,600 per kilogram by 2030 and potentially $300 by 2040—constellation operators could deploy larger networks at significantly reduced expense, potentially lowering consumer pricing or accelerating deployment timelines. However, the researchers identified three risks that could slow progress: growing space debris threatening orbital operations and potentially triggering a Kessler syndrome cascade; SpaceX's current dominance of roughly 75% of global payload to orbit creating monopolistic incentives; and renewed geopolitical tensions encouraging nations to pursue independent—though costlier—launch capabilities rather than relying on a single U.S. company.

The Bottom Line

The study, published July 14 in PNAS Nexus, demonstrates that space launch has experienced among the fastest learning rates recorded in any industry. Whether that trajectory continues depends on managing orbital congestion, maintaining competitive launch markets, and navigating political pressures around national access to space.