SpaceX's Starlink constellation is performing collision avoidance maneuvers at an accelerating pace, with each satellite dodging debris and other spacecraft on an almost weekly basis, according to data from the company's latest report to the Federal Communications Commission.
What Happened
Starlink satellites performed more than 355,000 collision avoidance maneuvers between June 2025 and May 2026, more than three times the number conducted in 2024. The semiannual FCC disclosure shows 207,152 maneuvers between December 2025 and May 2026 alone, up from 148,696 in the prior half-year period. On average, each Starlink satellite executed over 40 dodging maneuvers annually during this timeframe. The constellation operates at altitudes between 298 miles (480 km) and 342 miles (550 km), using an autonomous system that initiates a maneuver when collision probability exceeds 3 in 10 million. SpaceX has applied to the FCC to expand the constellation to 100,000 satellites.
Why It Matters
Space sustainability experts warn the rapid increase poses escalating risks. Hugh Lewis, professor of astronautics at the University of Birmingham and space sustainability expert, told Space.com that while each maneuver reduces collision probability to roughly one in a million, the aggregate risk across thousands of satellites becomes significant when millions of maneuvers are performed. 'The problem is that if you make a million maneuvers and you have a residual probability of one in a million, you end up with an aggregate risk across your entire constellation that you can't get rid of,' Lewis said. The Starlink fleet has grown from roughly 6,000 satellites in 2024 to over 10,000 as of June 2026, while the total operational spacecraft in low Earth orbit rose from around 10,000 to approximately 16,000. Tommaso Sgobba, director of the International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety, noted that doubling satellites in an orbital shell roughly quadruples the number of potential pairings requiring monitoring. Competing constellations from Amazon and China's Thousand Sails (Qianfan) are also deploying into similar regions, adding to congestion.
The Bottom Line
SpaceX leads orbital traffic management as the largest constellation operator, but experts say continued growth toward 100,000 satellites could push aggregate collision risk beyond negligible levels by 2027. Without coordinated orbital segregation between constellations, the industry may face an operational satellite collision despite collective avoidance efforts.